Local Actions, Global Consequences

Given recent advances in science and technology, the state of the earth is currently teetering on the brink of widespread catastrophe. Yet, it may not even take a global nuclear war to spawn global devastation. As both Robock and Toon’s “Local Nuclear War” and the 1954 short film “The House in the Middle” emphasize, it is perhaps the regional actions that are set to be the most transformative of our global security. A local nuclear war between India and Pakistan, for example, would not only kill more than 20 million civilians in the 2 countries, but would induce climatic responses that would last for at least 10 years. As smoke from the explosion remains suspended in the stratosphere, the particles absorb so much sunlight that surface temperatures are cooled and the ozone layer depleted. Thus, a regionally produced smoke local to two countries has now induced a global climatic response that would lead to widespread famines, increased ultraviolet radiation, and shortened agricultural growing seasons.

Meanwhile, the heat effects of atomic exposure on American homes is largely dictated by the extent of local housekeeping. Two houses identical in structure and exterior condition had drastically different reactions to thermal heat wave produced in an atomic blast due to different internal housekeeping, as the house with the cluttered room burst into flames while the tidied house remained aloft. Varied external housekeeping conditions also produced varied consequences, as both a littered, unpainted house and a dry and rotten house burst into flames after exposure to thermal heat, while a house in good clean condition with a light coat of paint only had slight charring of the painted outer surface. Thus, actions as local as housekeeping can sum to larger global consequences.

Yet, humans regularly fail to have the cognitive capacity to foresee the long-term and global effects of their focal actions. When they litter or fail to paint their homes, rarely do they think that the cost of their laziness is their individual, communal, and global security in the event of an atomic explosion. Similarly, policy makers tend to put the interest of national security at the forefront of their agenda without realizing the global tradeoffs of their regional decisions. Would it be possible to convince global leaders to eliminate nuclear weapons entirely? From a scientific standpoint this seems to be the decision with the greatest positive outcome, yet from a political economic standpoint, the imminent risk of national security leads to hesitation. Perhaps global cooperation between nation states—a universal covenant to exchange national security for global security—is the ideal solution; yet, whether this is realistically feasible in a world so focused on the present seems much less certain. — Crystal